A step forward and two steps back. The market has once again proved that it is not going to grow on expectations alone.
In our previous review we wrote about a probable signal for the bulls if the EMA50 crosses the EMA100 from the bottom up, which actually happened on 19 January. But, as we expected, this upward puncture was false and has not led to the BTC/USD pair growth.
Currently, the Bitcoin price has fallen to the previous support level of $ 3,570 of 13 January. As the triangle has been broken through downwards, the decline may continue today.
The moving averages suggest a decline. The EMA50 and the EMA100 are under the price and tend to go down. The MACD indicator is in the sell zone. Local resistance is at the EMA50 level of $3,660. The bulls’ targets are in the range of $3,400-3,360, and hitting the 2018 all-low is at $3,215.
On the 4-hour timeframe we see the triangle that the price has punctured downward, as well as a sideways channel limited by the support and resistance levels at $3,570 and $3,800, respectively. The current support has a chance to hold on, but the technical analysis shows that a decline is more likely to occur. The moving averages are above the price and tend to go down; the MACD indicator is also in the negative zone, without any signs of reversal. Targets for a further decline remain the same as on the 1-hour timeframe, with a possible sideways trend within the $3,500-$3,400 range. The resistance on the 4-hour timeframe is at $3,700 (EMA50) and $3,800 levels.
We have decided to dwell on more detail on the day timeframe in our today’s review and show the market’s overall picture.
Our technical analysis does not suggest a market reversal, for it can emerge only if the price firmly consolidates above the EMA200 (above $5,600) provided that the EMA100 and the EMA50 cross the EMA200 from the bottom upwards. At the moment the price is close to the 2018 minimum, at the $3,215 level (the blue line on the chart), which does not exclude its retest. The next support level is at $2,980 of 15 September 2017 (highlighted in a circle on the chart), and the support line is highlighted by a bold red line. The first resistance for the ascending movement is at the $4,400 level (the green line on the chart).
We don’t expect Bitcoin to cost $10,000 tomorrow and $20,000 the day after. But we are still convinced that the market will start growing. Just a little is needed for this – time and patience. One should trade very cautiously as unrealistic expectations lead to losses.
We will definitely tell you about growth signals.
We wish you all good profits.